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Thursday, August 07, 2008

FDICs new popularity not a good thing.

The FDIC is the 7th fastest growing website in traffic according to compete.com 2008-07-movers  You know something is going on when FDIC.Gov beats out Jibjab.com in an election year.

Let's hope this Friday isn't so scary in terms of banks closed.

You can tune into the FDIC bank closure site yourself at around 8-9pm EST.

Based on various estimates from Roubini and others the range of closures will range from 150-800 of the +8,000 US institutions.

Based on the estimates and assuming the failures arrive as a Poisson distribution over time, we can expect to see a Friday night  in the future with +25 bank closures. 

This is not a good thing.

A suggestion for the volatility traders in the audience.  Go long volatility Friday in the financials and short it on Monday. 

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