Losses of up to 58% predicted in NYC commercial real estate in 2011. Article in Jan 8,2010 New York Times.
Readers of Designing Better Futures would have known about the potential for this since Feb 4, 2009. Article Tarp for Trump 60% declines for Manhattan Real Estate. The decline estimates were for residential real estate which still has room to go, but the methodology is the same and the outcome will most likely be similar.
My assessments of gold and forex lead to +90% gains for some accounts in 09 and managed to return +45% on capital at risk in 07-08 combined for value based hedge fund.
Value based investing is the core approach using multiple mental models a la Munger and Buffet with a little quant stuff for empirical testing. Small capital was deployed. Common sense and patience seemed vital.
An experiment with high frequency trading this year was disastrous. Maybe I am a better value and macro guy.
Sector knowledge:
- Forex
- Commodities
- FMCG
- Structured Finance & Bond Insurance
- Telecoms
- Technology
- Renewable Energy
- Consumer services
- Broad international experience
