The sequel to Ray Kurzweils, "age of spiritual machines" is a very interesting read.
It sums up once again the speed and power of technology all around us. Kurzweil is never afraid to step out on a limb and make some claims that seem outlandish.
His claims could be discounted like those of so many other futurists and prognosticators, if he didn't have a history of being so right for so long. Kurzweil is not only a visionary, but a hands on technologist as well. He has participated in building pieces of our "present" back when they were the "future".
For those who haven't read either books an amazing and free starting point is to have a look at a PowerPoint illustrating some of the fundamental assumptions underlying his many thesis. Kurzweils website is worth some time and consideration. Don't just browse it, read it! If possible find some of his PowerPoint's online.
The general thesis is the following. Technology is evolving on an exponential curve. This curve is shared across various aspects of technology (applied science). At a point in the not to distant future technologies will converge leading to an event that will set the stage for the next point in the concept of the evolution of consciousness. OK that is some pretty heavy duty stuff to think about.
Kurzweil's general thesis is out their, but it is important to note that in studies of human "errors" in judgment we quite often significantly underestimate the power of exponential growth. Kurzweil shows us this time and again in his book by showing how computation power and pervasiveness has increased by factors sometimes measured in billions while the cost has decreased just as dramatically. Moore's law and other phrases really don't capture what is going on. Kurzweil uses some great analogies to show the impact. Take a look at this PowerPoint to see what I mean.
Kurzweil puts forth constructs of immortality and limitless awareness and consciousness. Ironically even these abilities could be superseded by "machine" intelligence in Kurzweils perspective. The general thesis is not some brute force algorithm for playing chess or some other bounded set problem. Rather, Kurzweil posits the concept of a new awareness. Again some very out there stuff, but I guarantee if you read the book your imagination will be stretched, you can agree or disagree with him but the questions and possibilities he explores are profound.
The possibility for immortality is only 20-25 years out in the future.
Remember the original PC is only 20ish years old and the net is roughly 11 years old for most people.
The only critique I would have Kurzweils' book as an amthropologist is that he left out human nature. the perfect techno utopia of limitless knowledge, awareness and consciousness will still be bounded and constrained by a species that is social, hierarchical and evolved to deal with situations of scarcity, and competition. Not to be all Hobbesian about but this, those influences will be present, even if the cerebral gets separated from the corpreal.
The future put forth my Kurzweil should be pushed, poked and prodded a lot more than it is. Kurzweils positive spin is of course usually posited against, Bill Joy "of sun microsystems fame" and his grey goo, nano replicators taking over the world position. The truth is, something of incredible proportions for humanity will unfold. What it is and what it means for all of us remains to be seen, but the singularity does appear to be on a march ever closer.
