Nassim Taleb is a mixed blessing, part cheerleader for ignoring the false rationalism of statistics in the realm of human folly we call economics and part self indulging jester for being "mis-understood" and protesting too much. I think he suffers a case Roubini syndrome.
Roubini syndrome involves being right once about a big thing and therefore attributing every utterance and opinion subject to that opinion and framework. Having only a single mental hammer seems to have forced both men to see all problems before them as nails.
The risk in Roubini syndrome is that of the one hit wonder pop star who slowly fades away. Both men have more to contribute but seem bent on correcting the media with ever more shrill voices. They have an analog version of SIWOTI syndrome which currently keeps them from more interesting and lasting contributions to thought on economics.
Take a look at Taleb's latest paper Oct 18,2009 entitled Common Errors in Interpreting the Ideas of The Black Swan and Associated Papers.
The paper's first pages are a tiresome tirade, but he has some solid points in the back end of the paper. My own opinion is that his overly emotional rebuttals to prior rebuttals to his work cheapen his voice and muddle the waters. Don't feed the trolls. A good idea stands the test of time and the best of ideas attract the strongest of criticisms early on before being accepted.
New paradigms are rarely acknowledged as such immediately, that is the role of fads masquarading as innovations. History and ideas of historical note are only acknowledged correctly in the breech.
My recommendation is that the Black Swan should sink or swim in the sea of ideas. The author needs to let it leave the nest to defend itself and fly on its own. Ideas once submitted for consideration are no longer their author's property, but rather become a part of a useful collective consciousness or fade away. Paradigms are a group phenomenon whether true or not.
The gifted Anish Kapoor creator of the Cloud Gate sculpture in Chicago long ago accepted that it would forever forward be known as "the bean", such it is with all creators and their creations in the public domain.
