Designing better futures

information is life: healthcare 2.0

I have a fraternity brother who is slowly losing his children to a rare neurodegenerative disease called Battens syndrome.  He and his wife are watching their 5 year old son fade before there eyes.  One of their twin daughters will go through the same process.  They are doing everything they can. 

If you know someone in such a situation here is a video explaining an amazing example of open source software for collaboration to discover better therapies and solutions.  This is insight into open medicine that lets everyone help is a fascinating example of well thought out design, information sharing and participation that may improve many lives.

 Imagine what will happen in the very near future when geneology sites with millions of people's profiles (see here) potentially start allowing the uploading and cross posting of raw DNA data while other build tools to study phenotypic expressions of genetic potentials.

The technology is here now and the cost points and pieces are all falling into place.  Open genomic posting and analysis in 3-5 years (800-1,200 days) will be an incredibly impactful business.

Gene impact beats i-pad in the long run

Shocker folks, the i-pad will grow in popularity, but won't change cultural institutions, values or belief systems much.

Gene testing and diagnostics will change cultural institutions, values and belief systems.  These are some old gene chips to the left.  I used to help run a project that played around with these. 

A firm called Counsyl is releasing a new chip that tests for 100 genetic related dis-orders.  This $700-800 chip will allow couples to determine the likelihood of a common or rare dis-order being passed down.

Counsyl isn't really that big a piece of news for those in the know.  There are probably hundreds if not thousands of the 23,000 listed syndromes that will show a genetic pre-cursor and or later deterministic environmental factor. 

The cost performance curve of sequencing which shames moore's law, means that a multi-hundred million dollar sequencing project in 2002 is now about $4,000. Nature Article: The changing economics of DNA synthesis.

You, your spouse, kids etc. will most likely be able to be sequenced for less than a $1,000 in 2-3 years.  If you want to understand how fast this world is looming, check out the  Carlson curves on the right hand side of Rob Carlsons page, they are the Moore's law of genetics.  There will be an ecosystem of multi-billion dollar service providers in this space in 5-7 years.

I bet that in 10 years sequencing of the flora in the gut will be as common as in-vivo protein analysis.  Trivia point: for every one "human cell" in your body there are 10 bacteria, they are just significantly smaller.  We are all walking and talking microbial ecosystems.

Counsyl has put 100 diagnostic tests on a chip.  In a few months, quarters etc. you will most likely see firms put thousands of tests on a chip while the price point stays about the same.  The information flood will be huge, the social impact even larger.

The true impact of any technology is the deeper philosophical situations that are opened up.  Rapid transport, steamships, trains, jets all shrank the world and made us all more neighborly or warly.  The internet mixed up our ideas and concepts of culture and boundaries, etc.

Genes let us ask: who am I? where did I come from? How long will I be here and what will my offspring be like.  The answers will be crude and very fuzzy ripe for mis-interpretation and mischief.  Genetics is accurate, phenotypic outcomes are fuzzy as they depend on lots of variables.

Quiztime involving the simple 100 test from Counsyl:

1. When should a couple take a genetic test, before/after marriage, dating, never etc.?
2. If you don't take the test and something occurs with your child, would you still feel OK about your choice?
3. What are the social implications for access to the test.  Should it be made available to everyone?
4. At what age should someone be aware of their genetic risk or opportunity profile (adulthood), sexual maturity?
5. If you take the test, does you have an obligation to share information with siblings who don't take the test but may be considering having a child and at risk?

The genee (sic) is coming out of the bottle folks and is faster than you can imagine.  Forget hacking your i-pad to support flash, and think about hacking your genes.  more on genes here just scroll down.

Genetics, Behaviour & Bullies

Wow, This is a great article in the Atlantic about the group behaviour in rhesus Monkeys and potential analogs in those big bald chatty apes we know as Homo Sapiens Sapiens "elder wise human".

The article hints about the functioning of a genetic variable and how it interacts within a social environment.

Here is the teaser video which only hints at a small part of the article.  This type of research will lead to many books and the genetic component will only loom larger as we are on the cusp of  the $1,000 genome. 

When I was helping to manage a Gene sample gathering project that was to be the World's largest, a single Genome cost about $100 million to sequence.  My estimate of the cost curve was that we would hit $1,000 by 2010.  We will probably be there in 2011, not bad analysis.

The issues mentioned in the article include:

• Violence and bullies (individual bullies often get ostracized from the group and suffer biologically due to the exclusion)
• Socialization and group conflict(some interesting narratives about conflict and the maintenance of a dominance hierarchy)
• Non-linear phase transition in group dominance  (rapid downfall after a coup for one group)
• Genetic potential realized relative to environmental factors specifically what we would call "nurturing or good mothering".

There is even hint about the fascinating Dunbar limit which I think holds one key to optimal group organization.  Great article for the anthro-socio geeks like me.  I will probably read the Atlantic article 2-3 times as it is dense and not quite scientifically conclusive in many areas, but fascinating all the less at the hints it gives to future questions in regards the role of genes, culture and environmental determinism in the face of genetic potentials expressed. 

living to be 100: National Geographic research and video TED Talk

Optogenetics is amazing

 
Wow!  I jsut finished this article on optogenetics in wired.  Basically it involves targeted neuron therapies involving the typical stuff of gene therapy with an amazing optical twist.

1. isolated gene for expressing protein (in this case light sensitive from algae)

2. A benign viral vector for transduction or other method for transfection (ie. slipping the gene into host cells so it can function delivery)

3. Using light to activate de-activate the protein function (that is pretty wild).

By now luceiferase and other photodetectable biomarkers are pretty common.  I used to read a bio-photonics journal for fun on the subway in New York.

Instead of biomarkers the researches in the article above are using light to induce function both for activation and de-activation of the desired protein state and they are doing it in mammalian brains.  It is huge stuff and an incredible case of lateral thinking.  The article link above does the technology great justice for the layperson and almost  warrants (for me at least) re-subscribing to wired.  Wired has sadly become a rather tired mouthpiece touting the latest MSM offerings pop-tart culture and gadget Version X.0 fanboy gunk.

The interesting things is that instead of typical gene activation, de-activation functional regimes such as SiRNA and related block-out, knock out schemes this one can be activated with remote stimuli and toggled on and off at rapid rate.  How cool is that?

Now ideally the desired behaviour is induced relative to functioning normal bio-feedback loop, but when those fail and the causal chain isn't fully understood this looks like a great shortcut.  Flip a light inside the organism and the proper function is expressed.  Imagine turning on and off a neuro-transmitter related illness like a light switch.

The only cause for pause in my mind is that many bio-feedback loops have dampeners, gain functions and inhibitors for good functional reasons.  The risk is that without understanding the reason for a failed or over-stimulated loop such as parkinsons etc. is the solution/therapy may lead to downstream physical bio-chemical issues or cascading factors as people will use the "desired physical" output potential to achieve a bio-process detriment due to the lack of dampening feedback. 

A way to think of this is the learning function of pain.  In the organism we experience the neural feedback of "pain" in response to physical stimuli that harm us or induce a change in state that means we should limit the current activity or risk physical harm to the organism.

Regardless of the current risks, the world of optogenetics is opening some amazing ways to control neuronal processes as well as monitor them in real time and at localized scale.  Other optical and non-optical bio-markers mean that true functional biological models and therapies are getting closer, this is a good thing. ...and the singularity inches forward another notch.

More power = more questions

Everyday we progress exponentially along the knowledge curve implementing improved technology to manifest greater power.  That power comes in the form of energy, information and control as manifested through individual and group behaviors. 

As a former chief analyst for one of Europe's most advanced research labs and an anthropologist I pose this question. 

More power to ever smaller groups can mean more risk to everyone, what should we do at the group social level? 

I don't have answers, but these are profound and looming questions.  Here is a video or War power.  I have posited since 1990 that applied biological technology will pose as many profound challenges as anything we have yet encountered.  Yes this is Bob Merton, he the maker of small fortunes from large one who blew up LTCM.  He has led some of the most expensive lessons in convexity exposure and Gamma risk ever.  Please god, for the sake of the children keep him away from systemically large amounts of leverage :).

economics, technology, science and the singularity

Juan Enriquez usually gives some of the more intriguing talks at TED.  He jumps from point to point spinning disjointed concepts into amazing narratives.  As a former chief analyst for a "deep future" science research park and anthropologist, this is right up my alley. 

Be warned watching this video will make your head swim with possibilities.  As a hedge fund manager today, I believe imagination is the most important risk management tool.  This video has a lot of implications.

Check out Ray Kurzweils book the Singularity is Near to understand the drivers behind all of this.

Future arriving soon....

I have said it before...the future is getting here faster than you thought. Today's miracle will be tomorrow's take for granted consumable.

Here is a band-aid with a sensor to indicate biological conditions.

The band-aid will report biological stats via Radio to a near field sensor.  Today our bodies potentially broadcast out to the internet.  Soon the internet may broadcast back.  Imagine a bandage with microencapsulated drugs etc. responding to a remote prescription.  Probably only 2-3,000 days out. 

I am going to start reporting about the future as most people anthropically identify with the passage of a day more closely than years. Thus something 2-3,000 days out is 5-8.2 years away, much closer than you think. Too put the future in perspective and the passage of time.  The song Slim Shady was released in 2000.  For many it will feel like yesterday, culturally it was one of the top 10 songs in the US.  The future is weirder than we can imagine.

More on your genetic future

Finally nano-tech is moving into interesting realms.  The advent of nano sized bio-sensors such as the one pictured to the left is the pre-cursor to bio production and manipulation. 

You like most people don't know it yet, but your life is going to be altered in 10 years in ways you can't imagine. 

Anthropically people here 10 years and underestimate what that means.  So hear it goes in 3,652 days, the average lifespan for those who can afford it may be beyond 110 years.

Children born then will have IQ's and physical skills at our beyond their genetically optimal potentials.  Here is the link to the biosensor tool shown above.

New cancer test is interesting

New Test for Cancer Cells in Blood

An inexpensive microfluidics chip could lead to earlier cancer detection and treatment.  Read the Article from the MIT Technology review.

This is important, because the age of biology we are currently embarking on will truly be what people assume medicine is doing now.  Diagnosis of cancer will identify perhaps not only the cell variant inducing the cancerous behaviour, but also potentially the cause either viral, carcinogenic, bacterial, radiological or endosystemic.  I made that last word up, but basically, it means any attribute that is endogenous to an organism which may lead to the self-induction of cancer regardless of exogenous factors.
The future looks very bright.  The ability to track cell variants at using small samples and hopefully address them, will lead to far better solutions and cures, not just therapies that will make chemotherapy and excision appear to be the truly crude techniques they are.

on the path to immortality

See the article.  Will you be able to buy your own bladder?   The only thing that may separate you from immortality in the future is some very tricky bio-chemistry and a good check book. 

Researchers can read thoughts to decipher what a person is actually seeing

Here is a fascinating article that reinforces the work of Ray Kurzweil and his book, the singularity is near.  Basically the article is about the ability to track via live scanning a single human thought.  It is early days in this field, but the science is rapidly approaching boundaries considered science fiction just a few years ago....and ever faster we go, to we know not where or what.

Hey wow a gene hole.....

OK a big move on the path to the $1,000 genome this week.   Some researchers from Harvard and Arkansas have come up with a way to drill a hole (pore) into silicon and pull a single strand of DNA through it.  While they pull the DNA through the pore, they can measure the base pair types, thus rapidly sequencing the strand.  This means we are getting closer to the $1,000 genome.  Here is the popular press article.

Here is the real science article for the nerds.  I thought it was a very cool read, probably one of the best paper's I have come across in a few years. In a very clear and straight forward process these guys are really pushing the science of genetic sequencing  forward by leaps and bounds. 

I was explaining to my wife, that our current mechanisms for treating genetic illnesses such as cancer are incredibly crude.  Being able to sequence a cancerous cell or mass will allow us to get out of the middle ages in terms of diagnoses and treatment. 

Our current knowledge of cancer at both the detection, taxonomic and medical response level, will be seen as barbaric and medieval within 7-10 years.  The whole label cancer is as sophisticated as lumping all of the tropical illnesses together and telling a victim they have "tropicitis". 

Today's doctor's treat cancer with the same knowledge and tool set that a 14th century naval surgeon treated scurvy.  They do their best, but your average practitioners ratio of humility to knowledge is seriously out of whack.  Chemotherapy by and large is only slightly better than leeches or the laying on of hands in terms of efficacy and true healing. Let's hope that cheap sequencing combined with advances in functional genomics, pharmacokinetics and patient therapy live up to the average physicians current self belief.

Genetics demystified

I am now an associate with an investment fund and thought I would brush up my knowledge.  I am focusing on technology, Clean tech and genetics.  Our fund is a classic value player, we buy $1 bills for $0.30 or $0.50.

I bought the book genetics demystified to see how my knowledge was holding up.  The book has a lot of typos. I should know a lot about this  I am sloppy this way as well.  By and large genetics demystified does a fairly good job of introducing the basics of genetics, genetic related diseases, cancers and the basics of genetic technology. 
Each chapter has a quiz at the end and their is even a final.  I read 2-3 books a week on the train and this was a pretty fun one. 

If you want a primer on genetics get genetics demystified, it covers a lot of ground fairly quickly and accurately.  Just make sure you read carefully there are a few typos and some of the Quiz answers are wrong or transposed.

Genes, Toys and genius

Craig Venter the man who really sequenced the human genome attributes his use of Shotgun sequencing which allowed him achieve this feat to his use of Tinker Toys as a child. 

Venter almost flunked High School, but scored in the top 1,000th percent on a military IQ entrance exam. In true scientific tradition the Noble Prize winner Watson, said what he wanted to do couldn't be done.  Venter went ahead and did it.  He proved the NIH  National institute of health wrong.  A classic case of rogue genius overcoming the establishment to make things happen. 
Never underestimate the value of creativity, play and determination to change the world. 
If you want to watch Venter in video check him out being interviewed by Charlie Rose.

Wrongful Life.. and genetic testing

A legal term called Wrongful birth has been used in conjunction with the failure to use a genetic test for screening an infant.  A couple has a child, the child is mis-diagnosed.  Child #1 has an inherited genetic disorder.  The family has Child #2 who has the seem severe condition.  Family sues for lack of genetic testing.  Read the blog entry from Hsien Hsien Lee here.  The ethical implications are large and another point for debate.  I will just address the technology and business issues at this point.  I try to keep politics out of my blog. 
Genetic screening will become mandatory in the near future 4-7 years.  This will be caused by doctors wishing to Mitigate liability. 

The active filtering of who lives and who dies will be determined by genetic tests more and more.  Today technology keeps alive individuals who wouldn't be here, it also contributes to their deaths.  Think of incubator's, anti-biotics etc.  "Technology" in the form of sonograms combined with infanticide is one of the causes indicated by Amartya Sen for the missing 100 million Asian females. 
Genetic screening is going to be a vertical market as people clamor to know more and choose how to respond.  The power of life and death in all forms brings with it huge responsibility, let's hope it is used wisely and compassionately.  We are on the verge of learning more about our own mortality than any other generation ever.  This will shape us as never before.

the $1.6b tech buyout you never heard about.

people don't really know about the technology behind genes etc.  The firm Digene was just acquired for $1.6b in early June.  It barely mentioned a rating in red herring etc. and most of the "tech" blogs.  Digene works in the diagnostics area, which is going to be huge in the future.  Digene specifically works in cervical cancer and its relationship to the Human papillomavirus. 

Prepare to hear about a lot of diagnostics companies getting bought out in the next few years. It is the wild west of diagnostics as DNA, biomarkers and precursors become huge business. 

The risk reward and potential ROI is higher than making molecules such as big pharma and the path to profitability significantly shorter and in most cases the market is larger and more consumer oriented.  Big pharma may be less topical an acquirer in these spaces than Johnson and Johnson and other types of FMCG's in the next years. 

Look out for someone to be building the P&G of in store/take home diagnostics, that via a mega roll-up. 
  The technology isn't quite there, but the regulatory shifts and advances will make it huge in 3-5 years.

investing in $1,000 genetics ecosystem

I think genetics are going to be huge industry.  Today at lunch I was having a conversation with someone and trying to explain that there are going lots of companies that are "unsexy" but making tons of money when the $1,000 genome threshold breaks.  Here is an example of one of them. Genvault   Storing stable samples may not be cutting edge technology, but is like selling picks and shovels to the sequencers and databanks in the future.

These guys Sorenson genetics may do something interesting in the future as well in terms of growth.   Most likely they will become a roll-up for someone in the personal genetic game. 

My own thesis is that lots of little sequencing and predictive biomarker companies will get rolled up into a massive firm that offers a subscription type service for people who park their samples with them.  The economies of scale and scope will be huge.  I call this firm ultragene.  It will look like a utility for indviduals and provide constant alerts as discoveries are made.  It will also end up housing people electronic health records.  It will be private and very powerful.

backup your immune system.....

We are trapped by our language.  We are trapped by our language and the metaphors we can construct to share our thoughts and ideas.  Thus we will probably be using the terms associated with computers to explain biological phenomenae for some time to come.  Here is a fascinating article about "backing up" your immune system.  Your immune system like your  meta genomic state is in a constant state of flux.  The concept of your body as a single fixed entity  is flawed.  Your body is actually a constantly evolving symphony of components.  Anyway here is an example of being able to capture a "healthy" state of your system and then potentially re-instate that into your body.  System Re-boot anyone?

image source NIH

personalized medicine marches forward

articles like this about medications prescribed based on Genetic makeup will become a flood in the next 2-3 years.  the diagnostics market for this will be huge.  Ironically the drugs companies lose and gain from this.  One the one hand they lose patients who aren't suited to a drug.  On the plus side they gain hopefully from fewer side effects, increased efficacy and hopefully even tailored dosages. 

The genetic diagnostics market could well become the tail that wags the world's multi-billion dollar pharma dog.

Roche snaps up a small genetics firm

Nimble gen systems has been acquired

Roche to Acquire NimbleGen for $272.5M, Eyes Additional Genomic Vendors
NEWSBRIEF
Genetics suppliers (the shovels) for the genomics and diagnostics business are going to be big winners in the next 3-7 years.  The time to buy for hedge funds or pharma is now.

A moth which has a computer chip implanted in it......

from the times in London: A moth which has a computer chip implanted in it while in the cocoon will enable soldiers to spy on insurgents, the US military hopes  from Ray Kurzweil's blog.  Weird stuff.  Will your next pet have a remote control?  Could people?

On the path to the $1,000 genome

Big news recently,  the $1m mark has been breached for the human genome.  See here,  the funny thing is no one really cares: yet.  The $1,000 genome is going to be the biggest political and business spot in the next 5-7 years.  Smart people should position themselves now.

The original human genome project that took +10 years and $3 billion  now takes 2 years and $1m.  I am still placing my bet on personal sequencing being ready for $1,000 in 3-5 years. 

Before that crude personal haplotypes will be available.  illumina has one of the leading technologies and of course 454 biosciences is a contender.  The data and impacts are not fully appreciated by anyone in the major media yet. 

As my finance professor in Paris said these facts have to pass the inter ocular test before people realize what they mean, i.e. they have to hit them between the eyes.  :)

Here is a scenario in the not to distant future.  Has anyone in your family had cancer?  Would you be willing to pay $1,000 to see if you might get it to?  This could be a big market.  The diagnostics, data storage and services related to the personal genome will be huge. 

I think the next microsoft-google will be a sequencing and storage service in the private sector.  After all who do you trust most, the govt., your insurance company, or the private sector with the keys to your medical past and future?  There will be some unsexy smaller (sub) $50m revenue firms  components to this value chain that get rolled up.   

These will be in the sampling side (think swabs and entothlial cells), data handling, mass CRM components, bio data intergrity and storage arena's.  Even verified sample storage and destruction on significant scales will be viable businesses.  Oh and of course lawyers given the ethical and legal issues there will be lots and lots of lawyers with a sprinkling of politicians and pundits.  Can't have the technology show without the side show tagging along :)

good DNA visualization video, especially replication process

Wow, great video.  www.EyeonDNA.com a  highly recommended blog comes through again for finding this one.  The helicase component of the video is amazingly cool.

If you have time here is a great interview with Charlie Rose interviewing E.O. Wilson and Watson.  They have an amazing regard for Darwin and his work.  The Origin of Species is a great read if you have the time. :)  It is a chance to see that the best "revolutionary" work is usually plain spoken and carefully thought out in conversational tone.

Genetics and family information...tricky ethical issues

Here is a great segment from 60 minutes on genetics, crime and families.  Sorry I couldn't put the video into this blog.  CBS is one of those big companies that really doesn't get it, when it comes to video online.

The genetic issue is whether a genetic analysis which comes back negative but indicates a near relative may be criminal should be used as a lead to investigate other relatives.  The case in point involved a man in prison for 19 years who was found innocent of murder, but the evidence indicated a close relative may have done it. 

Some fellow was arguing the evidence shouldn't be used.  This seems positively ridiculous.

My instinct is that the UK has it right, use the evidence.   The 60 minutes episode is great for all of you CSI fans out there.

The thing that I did find troubling is the implications for genetic privacy in the future not involving crime.  suppose that in the future insurance companies etc are not allowed to get access to your DNA record as it may indicate a pre-existing condition, however if they have DNA samples from close relatives, then their may be indicators of the same illness, the law would never be broken technically, but DNA profiling could be used via statistical inference.  Just food for thought.

Cell Animation

Wow, I am a big fan of genetics and have a healthy dose of respect for the complexity of biological processes.  Here is a video which highlights some intra-cellular activity.  It is truly amazing.  We did some interesting work with micro-tubules at Starlab. 

Our biophysics groups believed micro-tubule interactions at the quantum level to be the key to human conciousness.  Unfortunately this video is a generalized cell not a nerve cell, but it is still an amazing "view" into what goes on.  Even if you can't follow the dialog, the visuals are an incredible way to learn about and respect the complexity of biology and our knowledge of intra cellular dynamics.  I liked the mito-chondria changing and the self assembling micro tubules, cool stuff in a geeky way.

Great National Geographic video

A lot of people wonder why I am such a genetics geek.  I am an anthropologist by training and technologist by profession.  I used to oversee the business side of a project to capture the worlds largest collection of Gene Samples.  Unfortunately the project stopped when the company ended.  But here is a great video from National Geographic highlighting the potential outcomes.

 

The National Genographic Project is one of the most fascinating genetics studies currently being conducted.

The genome revolution is set to influence the entire world.

genetic flavor of the future

The technological future arrives at different times in different places. Travel physically allows you to see this. 

One thing about the future is you can also get a rough time table for its arrival, just not what shape it will arrive in.  I used to work in a science research lab, whatever survived there might show up on the shelf or in your home in 4-10 years. 

Science takes lots of weird twists and turns to become technology and then applied commercial technology.  Here is a wild case in point.

A sheep that is 15% human has been made. An animal with a few human organs inside, is pretty interesting. 

Genetic technology will rapidly provide answers to some very challenging questions that we aren't socially, legally or religously enculturated to answer.   Expect lots of debate and discussion.   

All I can say is hang on, life is going to get weirder and more flavorful.

project for a genetic book

In my spare time I am going to a write a book about personal genetics for lay people that allows them to understand the power of this new emerging science.  The personal genome will have profound impacts on all of us. 

Some diagnostics are already here.  Here is a story from the New York Times that illustrates for good or bad one of those stories and poses the question would you want to know if?  I have spoken with many people over the years and tried to explain the biology will be the most important technology of our era. 

Genetics even basic diagnostics will make us face some of the  fundamental questions of life. Who am I?  How do I fit in?  What will happen to me? The power of this technology will be used for good and bad.  As an anthropologist, I see this technology more than any other challenging and ultimately changing our cultural institutions more than any other technology even perhaps the bomb which gave us the ability to destroy ourselves as a species.

Concepts of family, law, religion, privacy, self and group will all be turned upside down.  The era of the genetic awareness will usurp the zeitgeist of the net.  It will be personal and profound.

Take a deep breath and start to read.

The test, the counselor said, had come back positive.  Katharine Moser inhaled sharply. She thought she was as ready as anyone could be to face her genetic destiny. She had attended a genetic counseling session and visited a psychiatrist, as required by the clinic. She had undergone the recommended neurological exam. And yet, she realized in that moment, she had never expected to hear those words.

“What do I do now?” Ms. Moser asked......more

$1,000 genome around the corner

454 and  illumina and others are leading the charge in cheap sequencing of genetic data.

There is some fascinating information in a recent article of PharmaDD.

The title of the article is "race for the $1,000 genome Heats up."

Some interesting excerpts about the powers of technology in the sequencing arean: "Our data showed we had sequenced 2.6 billion  bases, which means we had an average of 16-fold coverage  of the human X chromosome. The over-sampling gives you much higher confidence," explains Smith. He says customers are looking for high-accuracy sequencing that’s   faster and less expensive. "Our system delivers about 100-times the throughput of conventional sequencing at about 1/100th of the cost,"